Gemini Plans Prediction Markets: A Race for CFTC Approval!

Gemini Plans Prediction Markets: A Race for CFTC Approval!

Gemini, the US crypto exchange, plans to launch regulated prediction markets and is currently awaiting approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This strategic decision could put Gemini in direct competition with Kalshi and Polymarket, which are already active in the market. Analysts see significant potential for growth in the prediction markets, especially after Gemini's IPO in September, which aimed to diversify into financial forecasting products.

According to a report from Bloomberg, Gemini intends to launch regulated prediction contracts once it receives approval for an application filed in May to set up a derivatives exchange. The proposed exchange would allow users to trade event-based contracts on topics such as sports, politics and economic developments.

Market conditions and regulatory challenges

However, progress on approvals is being delayed by the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to further regulatory scrutiny. If approved, Gemini would compete directly with the already licensed Kalshi and Polymarket, which is working to fully re-enter the US market. Meanwhile, competitors like Robinhood have decided to partner with Kalshi instead of pursuing their own exchange approvals.

Gemini has not yet made any official comment on these developments. Despite a current share price around 40% below the opening price, prediction markets are expected to act as a potential avenue for growth. This initiative is in line with a broader trend that many financial firms are pursuing to enter the fast-growing prediction market.

Competition and future prospects

Coinbase, the largest US crypto exchange, has also announced plans to introduce event contracts as part of a new strategy called “Everything Exchange”. Other major players in the market such as CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange are also exploring similar offerings, which could further intensify the competitive environment.

The timing of Gemini's plans remains uncertain. Still, the company's reputation for compliance, supported by New York's BitLicense, could help gain early trust in a space that continues to struggle with regulatory ambiguity, as crypto.news reports.