Collection of the BTC price development after previous halves, will the story repeat itself?

Collection of the BTC price development after previous halves, will the story repeat itself?

Since less than a year until the fourth halving of Bitcoin remains, speculation has already started whether the half or a similar upward trend will follow as the previous ones.

Detailed data show that the price development of the financial value before and after the last two such events was quite identical.

The halving effect

When creating the network, the anonymous developer Satoshi Nakamoto has integrated an event called "Halving", which takes place every 210,000 blocks (approx. Every four years) and halved the rewards that miners receive to slow down the speed with the new BTC.

Due to fundamental economic factors, these events had positive effects on the price development of the assets, since the assessment increases at least theoretically when the offer decreases while demand remains the same or increases.

Therefore, price increases followed on each of the last three halves. The last was in mid-May 2020, and in the next year and a half BTC started a remarkable bull cycle, which led to an ATH of $ 69,000 in November 2021. After the halving in 2016, the situation was similar because the highest level came in December 2017 (almost $ 20,000).

BTC price development before/after half-ranges. Twitter

As the above graphic shows, the performance of the assets before and after the last two halves was quite identical. It all starts with a 1.5- to 2-year bull cycle, followed by massive corrections and sideways trading. According to these statistics, BTC has already reached its low point after the almost 400-day bear market, which reached its peak last year when it fell below $ 16,000.

will the story repeat?

All financial experts will hurry to tell you that past services should not be concluded with the future. A current coinbase report claimed the same and found that the effects of the upcoming halving were still unclear, mainly due to macroeconomic factors and regulatory uncertainty.

However, there were similar reports before the halving in 2020, in which it was claimed that the assessment of the financial value was already priced in and that investors should not expect fireworks, which was not the case.

Nevertheless, it is still difficult to predict the future development of BTC, after all, even the very popular AI chat bot Chatgpt has recently refrained from.