Higher than expected job reports are not enough to push shares, cryptos green
Higher than expected job reports are not enough to push shares, cryptos green
- Bitcoin and Ether showed no recovery after positive economic data
- retailers begin to doubt what the Fed could decide later this month
stocks and cryptos stalled on Friday, as a dealer tried to analyze and analyze the recent turn of the US economy and analyze what they can expect later from the Federal Reserve this month.
Bitcoin lost 1.7 % in the middle of the trade session of the day and pressed the largest cryptocurrency below $ 20,000 - an important level of resistance. Ether decreased by 0.7 %; The S&P 500 gave up 0.6 %; And the Nasdaq fell by 1 %.
The United States created 315,000 jobs last month, while the unemployment rate has increased for the first time since January Report of the Ministry of Labor Published Friday shows. The wage increases per hour gave up slightly in August and amounted to 0.3 %for the month.
"The headline NFP [Nonfarm Payrolls] The number was slightly higher than expected at 315,000, which may have led to this initial discomfort, since a knockout report could have pave the way for an interest rate increase by 75 basis this month," said Craig Erlam, a senior market analyst at Oanda.
The Fed should be satisfied with the report, said Erlam, since the lower than expected wage growth and the increased employment participation indicate that inflation pressure could decrease. But, he added, investors should not yet expect less than 75 basis points.
"In the past few weeks there have been such efforts to put 75 basis points on the table that it would seriously undermine your opinion in the future if you changed your opinion," said Elram. "Coupled with a further proper decline in inflation in a few weeks, more could be convinced."
The futures markets now require a probability of 58 % for an interest rate increase by 75 basis points in September, which, according to the central bank, would be the third increase in this magnitude Data from the CME group. According to CME, the probability of an increase of 50 basis points is 42 %.
The central bankers also look at the production data, which showed a continuous expansion on Thursday for the 27th month in a row. Data from Institute for procurement management shown.
"The question for the markets here is, at what point the investors begin to cheer the resilience of economic growth this year in view of the historically aggressive tightening of FED policy, which now shows signs that it is effective in the limitation and probable reduction of inflation pressure?" Tom Essaye, founder of Sevens Report Research, Note.
essaye warned that investors take positive economic reports too seriously. There was still a lot of uncertainty about what the future will look like, he added.
"There is a possibility that retailers will look beyond short -term resilience and continue to expect politics to trigger a very bad recession at some point, but most indicators that we pursue, including the interest curve, indicate a recession in the second half of 2023," said essaye.
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