Institutions intend to buy Bitcoin at the end of 2023: Interview with Cryptoquant

Institutions intend to buy Bitcoin at the end of 2023: Interview with Cryptoquant

Bitcoin has been up since the beginning of the year, banks collapse and the Federal Reserve seems to approach the end of its monetary policy tightening mission. Does this mean that the bull market is back in action?

Cryptopotato spoke at the Consensus 2023 with the crypto market analysis company Cryptoquant to discuss everything that is related to the price of Bitcoin-including its position in the market cycle, its correlation to gold and its role during the continuing US banking crisis.

for Bitcoin are optimistic times before

When asked whether the bull market had returned, Benjamin Brannan, Head of Bd & Strategy at Cryptoquant, told Cryptopotato that Bitcoin apparently" left the low point of the bear market behind ".

Although he personally sees corrections as "always on the table", the head of business development said that he received news from institutional customers who intended to invest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the third and fourth quarter of 2023.

"This comes from conversations that I mainly led to institutional allocators and people," said the core funds, "said Brannan during an interview. "They spoke to various institutions or wealthy private individuals."

Brannan added that the institutions in the second half of the year wait for confirmation that Bitcoin has left the bear market, which has so far "seems to be the case".

Bitcoin and gold

Bitcoin at the beginning of the year noted at around $ 16,500 and in response to this year's US banking crisis, which experienced similar events, quickly increased to over $ 27,000 Silvergate, First Republic And other banking institutions fall through the grid.

The event has fell together with a falling correlation between bitcoin and stocks and an increasing correlation with gold. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the newly discovered resistance of Bitcoin compared to interest rate increases in the Federal Reserve, which last year affected both stocks and cryptocurrencies.

The correlation from Bitcoin to gold is the highest for years and exceeds the correlation for S&P

(h/t @kaikodata ) pic.twitter.com/5tdotlm5zq

- Will Clemente (@wclementeiii) 3. April 2023

Branaan said that the "rush to Bitcoin" is a sign that the market is considering digital currency at least at the moment as a "safe haven". He predicted that it would behave in the long term like a mixture of stocks and gold.

Meanwhile, Ho Chan Chung, marketing manager at Cryptoquant, suspected that Bitcoin is considered a goods that work well if the Fiat system does not go well. In contrast to other cryptocurrencies supervisory authorities in the United States there is only agreement that Bitcoin is a commodity, while Altcoins can be securities.

of the 4-year market cycle

bitcoin is notorious for move cyclically every four years between bull and bear markets, based on his offer emission plan Inflation rate reduced within the same time intervals. While the general pattern is predictable, it can be difficult to determine the exact time of the maximum and lows of the cryptoma market.

According to Brannan, there are some reliable indicators to identify deep stalls from the perspective of the chain. One of them is the ratio of market value to realized value (MVRV), which divides the market capitalization of an assets through its realized capitalization (which rates all bitcoins based on the respective price). Coin was last moved and probably sold.)

"If the coins have a very high unrealized loss, it is a good time to buy," said Brannan. "If many of the participants keep their coins with unrealized profits, win very high unrealized, one can assume that many people want to sell and make profits."

Ho Chan Chung (center); Brannan (right).

Derivation of the MVRV, including the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and the non -realized net profit and loss (Nupl), can also help to identify market highs and lows -especially if they exceed important threshold values.

Cryptoquant pursues MVRV conditions based on different age groups for when Coin it took place-including a day, one week, one month and so on.

price forecasts

When asked about price forecasts for the near future, both Brannan and Chung agreed that Bitcoin will probably not test its low-levels of $ 16,000 again.

"If there are no such black swan events, such as that Russia blows a nuclear weapon into Ukraine or bony explodes ... Then we should be quite stable when it comes to reaching the deep stalls," said Chung.

Chung added that Bitcoin could even exceed his previous high up to the second quarter of 2024-precisely when the next Bitcoin thangling takes place.

in the long term, according to Brannan, Bitcoin could realistically reach a million US dollars by 2030. Even the tightened regulatory situation in the United States could benefit from the asset.

"I think Bitcoin is difficult to regulate compared to" crypto ". I think it can be useful, ”he said.

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