Bitcoin's start of the year could signal an upcoming bull market: Glassnode
Bitcoin's start of the year could signal an upcoming bull market: Glassnode
Glassnode published his first on-chain video view of 2023 on Tuesday and examined what data-based indicators could be for an emerging crypto bull market.
The company found that both the price and the on-chain activity of Bitcoin and Ether have learned little volatility since the beginning of the year-a period like others that has been preceded by historically "explosive market movements". Span>
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"It is really remarkable, and there are very few cases in history in which Bitcoin and other digital assets really fall asleep at this level due to a volatility framework," said Check.
during the a few times in history in which volatility was below its current level, Bitcoin subsequently experienced massive volatility tips-in both directions. For example, in November 2018, both Bitcoin and Ethereum fell by over 50 %after a flat trade phase. Likewise, a similarly slow phase quickly followed a market clock from $ 4,000 to $ 14,000 within three months.
With a view to the on-chain activities, Check found that the "New Address Momentum" became positive for the first time since May 2021. This refers to this when the monthly average generation of new blockchain addresses increases above the annual average, which indicates a relatively high on-chain activity at this time.
The analyst believes that this could show an reversal of on-chain moment, similar to the beginning of 2019-but could still fail and go down. "This is really an indicator of what is going on in terms of demand and the user base," he said.
Bitcoin is currently practically not exposed to a fee printing, which means that there is little demand for blocking for the handling of transactions. Meanwhile, the transfer volume of the network has been located since "in free fall". ftx collapse and processed about $ 65 billion a day before the collapse and currently only $ 5 billion.
in particular large companies that make transactions worth $ 10 million or more, have become far less dominant with regard to the total volume than in 2021 and most of the year 2022.
"There was a lot of transaction volume that was associated with the company FTX-Alameda, and it is likely that a reasonable part of it had something to do with it," said Check. Finally, the analyst examined the realized cap dominance of Bitcoin and ether. The metric compares the total value of Bitcoin and Ether, based on the last time at which units of these cryptos were transacted, and observes the proportion of Bitcoin and ether on this cake. This differs from traditional market capitalization/market dominance metrics that evaluate certain coins unfair in certain networks. Examples are the many lost bitcoins that are believed to belong to Satoshi, and not moving coins from the Ethereum ICO, many of which believe that they will never move them again. Check that the extent of the Drawdown in each coindie-realized upper limit of "offers us a measuring instrument for the extent of the prevailing bear market". currently relatively more realized value flows in Ethereum than in Bitcoin. . realized dominance
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