BTC reaches the critical level back after a severe closing date, here are the next goals
BTC reaches the critical level back after a severe closing date, here are the next goals
September was a volatile month full of liquidation events, Fud, global risk-off, uncertainty about monetary policy and increasing dollar. Nevertheless, Bitcoin managed to keep the larger technical structure at $ 40,000 and at the same time maintain the upward trend for on-chain indicators.
BTC showed enormous strength last week by being closed again above the increasing trend line at $ 44,000, $ 45.2,000, the critical sliding 200-day average, and printed an interest bullish candle. Bitcoin also managed to penetrate the green zone between $ 47.2,000 and $ 50.5,000 again.
In the short term, it is important for BTC to establish support of $ 47.2,000 to $ 47,000, since this level has a wide range of a wide range in accordance with the UTXO Realized Price Distribution metric. If the price is above this level, it acts as support. So far, BTC has tested $ 47.2k again and managed to keep support.
elliott wave suggests that the sweater from wave 2 is almost closed
As we recently discussed, the sweater from $ 52.9,000 to $ 39.5,000 of an ABC correction shaft with 3 waves downwards, typical of sweater upwards after a 5-wave impulse. The floor formation process took some time as the global stocks became risk -free, but BTC showed strength by holding the deepest higher low at $ 40.7,000 for a whole week before climbing up.
The latest closing price over $ 45.2k further indicates that BTC is currently in sub -wave 3 upwards, part of the following five wave pulse higher. In the short term, the bulls have to protect $ 47.2,000 as support and press BTC over $ 48.8,000, a short-term lower high and especially over $ 52.9,000, which is high in September. In order to confirm that the pullback was a bear trap at 39.5,000 $ 39.5,000, we have to see the BTC Prize for validation over 52.9,000 USD.
The larger wave structure indicates that the sweater from $ 64.8,000 to $ 30,000 was a larger wave 4 correction after a strong increase in wave 3, the BTC sent from USD 3.8,000 to $ 64.8,000. Using this number of waves, BTC seems to be upwards in the early phase of the larger wave 5, which may send BTC to new all -time highs.
on-chain trend Fest Bullish
While Bitcoin in the low $ 40,000 range corrected and consolidated with a very declining mood, the on-chain indicators continued to show that long-term owners were held firmly while the leverage was rinsed on derivatives and weak hands.
itself as a BTC was corrected over several weeks, the foreign exchange reserves have decreased by over 14,000 BTC, which shows a strong accumulation. The spot stock exchange reserves have been tending lower since July 26, 2021, since BTC continues to be taken up and deducted from the stock exchanges. This is a very bullish signal, since the cryptocurrency in liquid form becomes scarcer, which makes it more difficult for large institutes to accumulate them without increasing prices.
Cryptoquant's mean COIN The age indicator, which measures the trend of accumulation or distribution in long -term owners, continues to tend to impact and shows a strong accumulation, which indicates a continuation of the bull market. The current conditions look very similar to the pullback in the middle of the cycle in 2013, in which the BTC consolidated for six months, while the average coinage continued to come up, since the long -term owners accumulated again.
This consolidation phase led to the second half of the housese, in which BTC reached new all -time highs and became parabolic. Of course, this meant that long -time owners and miners were distributed, which led to the mean value of old age tends to be lower, which confirms a distribution trend. The current conditions show no signs of a distribution of long -term owners, which indicates that the second half of the Bullenmarkt 2021 is just beginning.
Miner The reserves have remained unchanged to slightly higher for the year, which indicates that the miners even with wild fluctuations due to liquidations and FAud show no interest in selling large amounts of Bitcoin. Although the miners recently sold a small amount of BTC in relation to the total stocks, this is by no means the aggressive sale that we saw during the bear markets when miners are under extreme pressure to reduce profitable. In addition, the Bitcoin Hash rate has more than tripled since the lows in June, which indicates that the miners brain in the network after migration from China.
With the current Bitcoin prices, the miners are very profitable overall, which stimulates them to buy Hodl instead of selling to cover the operating costs. This is remarkable because the new range of Bitcoin that comes onto the market is mainly held by miners. The majority of the existing Bitcoin offer is still kept by long-term owners and companies with a low to no sales history, which also shows that the offer is becoming increasingly scarce.
risk when the trade resumption?
With a new week, market participants will carefully observe the shares and the dollar to see whether the market is becoming risky again. The dollar recently seems to have exceeded its maximum mark, while the SPX formed a double floor that managed to keep the deep stalls of more than 2 weeks ago within the week. In view of the ongoing macro-conditions, the risk systems such as zero interest rates, trillions of liquidity, a lot of fear on the market and no signs of euphoria when the stocks reach new all-time highs, it seems more likely that the risk to trade could be resumed in the coming weeks.
Since Bitcoin has recently exceeded the shares, a return could be a large tailwind for further upward potential. With a strong trend in fundamental data, technical data and on-chain indicators, the cryptocurrency later seems to be positioned for a clear upward trend this year. The bulls are slowly gaining control.
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