2 Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin in the Next Days (BTC Price Analysis)

2 Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin in the Next Days (BTC Price Analysis)

Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin's price has been consolidating within a tight range after falling below the 50-day moving average. The market is currently between two notable levels, leaving room for several potential scenarios to develop.

Technical analysis

From: Edris

The daily chart:

The price on the daily time frame does not yet show any significant upward or downward movement. If a rally occurs in the coming weeks, the first resistance to watch is the 50-day moving average at around $28,000, followed by the crucial level at $30,000.

On the other hand, for holders, the key support areas to rely on are the $25,000 level and the 200-day moving average around $23,000. The RSI indicator remains below the 50% threshold without much movement, indicating the current bearish momentum and increasing the likelihood of a short-term bearish move.

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The 4-hour chart:

On the 4-hour chart, the price remains within a clear descending channel. Although there has been a recent uptrend triggered by the minor support level at $26,000, there is still a strong possibility of a decline towards the lower boundary of the channel and the support area at $25,000.

Conversely, for a recovery, the market must first break through the resistance level at $27,500. In this case, the probability of a breakout above the channel and a subsequent retest of the resistance area at $30,000 would increase.

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On-chain analysis

By: Edris

Bitcoin miner reserve

While Bitcoin's price remains relatively stagnant, examining on-chain metrics can help us understand the underlying dynamics.

The chart below focuses on the Bitcoin Miner Reserve metric, which quantifies the amount of BTC held by miners, a significant group within the ecosystem.

The data clearly illustrates a continuous decline in this metric over the past 9 months, suggesting that miners have sold their coins to cover operational costs or mitigate risks in an uncertain macroeconomic climate.

This decline has intensified, suggesting that miners are taking advantage of the recent price increase to sell their coins at a higher price. If this trend continues, a bearish reversal is likely to occur in the near future. The continued selling pressure from miners could lead to an oversupply of Bitcoins in the market, leading to a possible downward trend in the price.

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