How likely is it that Bitcoin reaches $ 1 million in the next cycle?

How likely is it that Bitcoin reaches $ 1 million in the next cycle?

There was a lot of talk about Bitcoin's potential, one day to achieve $ 1 million per piece-possibly in the next few years.

But is that a reasonable assumption? Here are the data points that must be taken into account when assessing the probability of Bitcoin, seven digits.

of the half -length cycle

The schedule for the money edition of Bitcoin is designed to reduce the rate of the newly issued coins all 210,000 blocks-about every 4 years. As is known, these "halves" are an important catalyst for Bitcoin bull markets and have so far sent the asset inconsistently to new all-time highs within two years of their arrival.

Historically, Bitcoin half-cycles reach their climax within 368 to 550 days after halving and their low point within 779 to 914 days. The cryptoanalyst Filbfilb on Twitter uses these highs and lows to form a "Bitcoin price curve" from which new cycle highs and deeps can be roughly approximated.

After the curve, the analyst predicts new highs of over $ 200,000 per coin in 2025 and $ 500,000 per coin in 2029.

22.06

Acceptance of Bitcoin tips and valleys in a similar way as before; Here are the most important results for the next two cycles based on this model.

> 200,000 $ in 2025 and $ 500,000 in 2029. pic.twitter.com/7monzky3ps

-Filbfilb (@Filbfilb) March 2023

In relation to the reason that Bitcoin could be rated so high, he found that the asset could be regarded by the markets as "flight to security" assets, for example when he gained value after the collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank and the Silvergate Bank this month.

"Wealth is in the middle of the transfer from the Boomer generation to the millennials, which, like all other generations, will try to protect their assets," he wrote. "You are probably doing this with means you are familiar with - i.e. with digital means."

Bitcoin against gold

The analyst also compared Bitcoin to gold-a historical safe port that currently has an estimated market capitalization of around $ 13 trillion. Bitcoin and gold are often known for their similarities in the form of solid money that can be used to avoid currency devaluation. Both have shown sign of growth this year, when the Federal Reserve announced plans to bring liquidity to the banking system.

Filbfilb noted that if Bitcoin fully grasp the market capitalization of gold, its price per coin would reach $ 670,000-although gold is probably not completely devalued.

"I suspect that two things will happen over time; a re-evaluation of the risk (and thus the assets that represent a risk) and a shift from physically to digital, as we saw it with everything else," he concluded.

wealthy tech investors cathie wood and have both predicted that Bitcoin can reach $ 1 million in the past few months. The latter claimed that this could happen in just 90 days and placed a bet of $ 2 million that an impending hyperinflation will drive its price into the sky.

In contrast, Wood expects Bitcoin to achieve this goal by 2032 at the latest-which according to Flibflib is a "reasonable" assumption.

"I recently explained that $ 180,000 is the goal for the next cycle; I will hold on for the time being," he concluded.

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