CPI numbers come on Thursday, what can be expected?
CPI numbers come on Thursday, what can be expected?
The consumer price index without food and energy (Kern-VPI) will be published on Thursday, January 12th, by the United States government.
Although the inflation rates have decreased in the past few months compared to the maximum stalls in the summer of 2022, the estimates still show a painful picture.
Here are the expectations
The upcoming CPI numbers will play a crucial role in the decision of the US Federal Reserve as to whether it continues its current monetary policy of the interest rate increase. In view of the course of 2022 and the increase to 4.5 % within one year, it would be advisable to assume that further increases will come.
This is also supported by the general estimates of the CPI numbers for December. According to the Cleveland FED, December could be 0.5 % in the month comparison, while the year comparison should increase over 6 %.
Bloomberg quoted more modest data and said that the Mom increase would be 0.3 %, which would bring the annual increase to 5.7 %. Nevertheless, this would still be the highest CPI jump for December for over 41 years.
"The favorable inflation developments are not due to interest increases of the Fed-they are mainly explained by China's ugly exit from Covid zero and the unusually warm winter. Nevertheless, the decline in energy prices has contributed to reducing the short-term inflation expectations, and the inflation risks continues to be more. 'Convincing' proof that the Fed has to see before it takes a break or considering interest rates. ” -commented on two Bloomberg economists.
What about Bitcoin?
Bitcoin had a favorable start to 2023 and won almost $ 1,000 in just over a week. This meant that the asset broke over $ 17,000 for the first time in about a month.
In view of its history with great US announcements, including the CPI numbers, one can assume that BTC could be faced with a volatile end of the working week. In fact, some analysts predict that Bitcoin could increase in the case of better than expected CPI numbers towards $ 20,000, especially if the US stock market also pumps.whether higher or lower, every previous example has shown that Bitcoin reacts with immediate price movements, which makes the announcement from Thursday even more important for the entire cryptocurrency market.
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