BTC enters a short -term sweater, is local low found?
BTC enters a short -term sweater, is local low found?
The latest 46%rally from BTC from the low stalls at $ 39.6,000 was very impressive because the prices over 50,000 $ 52.9,000, whereby higher maximum stands were achieved.
The above continues to confirm the end of the bear trap at $ 39.6,000. As expected, Bitcoin has found a first resistance in the 57.1,000 to 58.3,000 USD, an important zone of technical resistance and resistance in the chain.
The zone of $ 50,000 to $ 58.3,000 includes many buyers from the beginning of this year that Bitcoin acquired to $ 64.8,000 during the great preliminary. Although many of these buyers panicked the low stalls at $ 30,000, there are probably remaining owners who want to make a break-even or a small profit at the current level, which indicates a possible short-term sales pressure.
at short notice careful - overall trend remains bullish
The short-term technical data are a bit careful in view of the more than 45 %rally, the overbought conditions, the slightly increased open interest and financing rates and the low distribution in the chain. Historically speaking, rising open interests have led to short -term setbacks on the market with rising financing interest together with a rapid price increase. In addition, the cashiers began to rise, which led to an increase in the casser reserves, which indicates potential profit treatment.
Diagram of Cryptoquant
Diagram by Cryptoquant
Diagram of Cryptoquant
In view of the fact that Bitcoin with increased open intervent and financing rates of a significant resistance zone approached between $ 55,000 and $ 58.3,000, the short-term risk of withdrawal began.
When Bitcoin formed a local high at $ 57.8,000, the on-chain metrics showed signs of a slight distribution of older coins, in particular the 3- to 5-year cohort in accordance with the UTXO age distribution metric by cryptoquant. This corresponded to a slight increase in the coin metric of the destroyed days (increases when coins are output after they have been kept) together with an increase in LTH sopr.
The upward trend at CDD does not come to the aggressive level of distribution, which we saw in the later part of the 2017 Bullenmarkt or even at the beginning of the Bärenmarkt 2018. The current data show a light distribution that is expected according to large rallies.
This means that some long -term owners take profits when BTC met with great resistance. At the moment, the on-chain metrics show a slight distribution. It is important to observe the on-chain metrics exactly on signs of an aggressive distribution that would be bear for BTC.
What's next?
At the time of writing, the 3 to 5-year cohort seems to take profits with them, while most other cohorts continue to have a strong accumulation. As a result, the mean coin was slightly back and showed no signs of an aggressive distribution in the chain.
Historically speaking, an aggressive distribution occurs in the later phases of bull markets in which the price becomes parabolic, and especially in post-bull market tips in which BTC gets into a bull trap. This is the case when the price recovers a strong downward movement, while long-term owners sell aggressively and take profits with them, while retail Fomos come back on the market.In the short term, it is important to ensure that the bulls protect $ 50,000 to $ 55.3,000, which includes previous levels of resistance that are now supported, together with the September high at $ 52.9,000. A bouncing off this support zone with a pushback to $ 58,000 is an interest bully signal and increases the likelihood of an outbreak towards $ 60,000 and higher.
Due to the high technical resistance and resistance in the chain, it can take some time before the stock is absorbed. As soon as the offer is used up, we can expect Bitcoin to push up and possibly test again all -time highs, since there are significantly less resistance over 58,000 USD.
Despite a slight distribution in the near future, the overall trend for fundamental data and on-chain remains solidly pulled, since the majority of the cohorts continue to accumulate. The bulls have to keep the support zone of $ 50,000 to $ 55.3,000 to help BTC form a higher deep and to continue the technical outbreak. Many fundamental catalysts such as an expected BTC futures-based ETF, announcements of stock corporations and the potential risk of resuming the trade can be seen as a large tailwind that can drive BTC over all-time high.
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