Shares have not yet reached the surrender

The sky knows that we have gone through enough acronyms in this market cycle.

fomo - the fear of missing something, has driven many investors, professionals and amateurs into sharp investment classes. Nobody wanted to be the last person who gets on the next big thing, while excess money spills around in the global financial system.

tina - there is no alternative - went a little further. It expressed the idea that fund managers had no other choice than buying risky stocks because boring old bonds were lifting so few returns or even cost money to keep them even before inflation is taken into account. It is "the market made me buy this garbage", but with a somewhat cheekier name.

But it seems that we have not yet reached the highlight of the acronym. Since the bonds are now much higher, Tina is no longer (rip) and the market mood has changed. "We are of the fear of missing something, to continue to be afraid," as Peter Tchir, head of the macrost strategy at Academy Securities, formulated this week. I have read a lot of research from banks and investors for my sins. But "from fomo to foho" is new to me.

Tchir refers to the dreaded Bitcoin - a "value" in the absence of a better word that enables full milk like a fine glass on a summer day. If you have managed to avoid the crypto drama this week (well done), then you have to know that the drop in prices from the phase in which the prices in November began to the point where you are now traps in double-digit percentage per day and the platforms that offer trade with them begin to block and fight the people who have played on the coins. <

A platform, Bybit, offers "risk -loving dealers" products that they refer to as "low -risk savings" for up to "999 percent annualized interest". Terms and conditions apply. This is not a typo, but a sign that in this very serious market, which is by no means desperately demanding for new money, is definitely all right.

In the phase afterwards, one begins to worry about whether a full-grown price decline will influence other markets (this is the jury) and what effects that on risk capital, private equity or even typically serious pension fund investors has supported this intermediary starting losses. It will be fun. But I wander off.

The point is that crypto has finally shown a useful function.

Currency to buy, do you know, things? No. Value preservatives? Not really. Protection against inflation? Definitely not. But as the most speculative asset on the planet, possibly even the most speculative ever, it looks like a practical warning of coming disasters. The crypto canaria bird in the coal mining. The big question is whether the crypto who Foho will start to affect the shares.

It doesn't feel like we're still there. Yes, the stock markets have suffered so far in 2022. This year, a real stinker is developing in shares. The S&P 500 index is located in a bear market and has dropped by more than 20 percent compared to its latest high, and even the FTSE 100, which is generally protected from unrest thanks to its high raw material weighting, has lost more than 4 percent this year.

The dip purchase remains extremely sport. "US shares have suffered the biggest losses since the beginning of the year at least the 1960s," as the Blackrock Investment Institute emphasized this week. "This has sparked calls to buy 'Buy the Dip'. We fit for the time being." The profit margins are at risk from energy and labor costs, the ratings have not fallen far enough, and the US Federal Reserve could tighten monetary policy too much for its taste, said Blackrock. After the Fed had raised the key interest rate for a historical three -quarter percentage this week, the Fed itself admitted that a full brake would cause "some pain".

But even if only a few are brave enough to increase the stock quota (relatively) cheaply, many do not seem to be ready to really give up.

Jeroen Blokland, formerly at Robeco Asset Management and now head of the Research House True Insights, indicates that the S&P fell by almost 4 percent on a particularly ugly day at the beginning of this week. That is a lot. But he says it is only the 39th decline in the day since 2005. His mood indicator is still in the neutral area, not yet in the anxiety zone. His conclusion: no surrender.

A banker noticed a curiosity for me this week: If you ask investors whether you are unhappy and frightened, as the Bank of America often does in your monthly survey, you say yes. "The mood on Wall Street is dark," said the bank this week. But if you ask about your stocks, most have not thrown their risky favorite systems into the trash can. "People have to start selling things they really like," says the banker. "The surrender is still imminent."

The nerves show up. "I've never had such good access to Chief Investment Officers and CEOs," he says. "You want to talk."

This indicates that investors are desperately looking for ideas and knowledge what could happen next, and unusually what their competitors do. When Foho hits stocks, nobody wants to be the last one who gets out.

katie.martin@ft.com