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Gold and bonds: How investors benefit from the Fed cuts!
J.P. Morgan analyzes scenarios for the interest rate of the Fed: Recession vs. Growth phase. Focus on gold and bonds.
Gold and bonds: How investors benefit from the Fed cuts!
On October 4, 2025, the research analysts from JPMorgan published new insights into the possible developments in the Federal Reserve interest rate policy. Two main scenarios were identified that could influence the future performance of various asset classes. This could have an important impact on investors.
The first scenario describes a recession that is within reach. In such an environment, US state bonds and gold would benefit from the interest rate cuts in particular. Risker systems, including US high interest rates and the S&P 500, are expected to record negative returns. Gold could act as protection and benefit from the lower opportunities that are associated with reduced interest rates.
Scenario without recession
In contrast, there is the second scenario that describes a non-recessive relief phase. In this case, gold could deliver positive returns, which would be lower than in a recession. If the Federal Reserve continues the interest rate reductions later in this phase, gold and US high interest rate bonds could gain in importance and be a leader in positive returns. In general, this scenario is expected that most asset classes are profitable.
Fabio Bassi, the head of the cross-asset strategy at J.P. Morgan Securities emphasizes that the second scenario is considered more likely. It predicts a typical mid-cycle-eeasing phase, which is based on the insurance of interest rate cuts and a basic assumption that no recession will occur.
Overall, the analysis of JPmorgan shows how important the daily economic framework is and what far -reaching consequences can have the decisions of the Federal Reserve for different assets. Investors should keep an eye on these developments in order to make well -founded decisions and to adapt optimally to possible market movements.